Time: The 10 Major Newspapers That Will Either Fold or Go Digital Next

My dad sent me this link.

Ever since the Rocky Mountain News went under, everyone I talk to is nervous about my job. Even when I’m talking to someone at the Hesperia Unified School District who’s gotten a pink slip, they still want to ask how the Star is doing. For the record, it’s doing better than most papers in the country. Lean and mean is a virtue in times like these.

1. The Philadelphia Daily News. The smaller of the two papers owned by The Philadelphia Newspapers LLC, which recently filed for bankruptcy. The parent company says it will make money this year, but with newspaper advertising still falling sharply, the city cannot support two papers and the Daily News has a daily circulation of only about 100,000. The tabloid has a small staff, most of whom could probably stay on at Philly.com, the web operation for both of the city dailies.

2. The Minneapolis Star Tribune has filed for Chapter 11. The paper may not make money this year even without the costs of debt coverage. The company said it made $26 million last year, about half of what it made in 2007. The odds are that the Star Tribune will lose money this year if its ad revenue drops another 20%. There is no point for creditors to keep the paper open if it cannot generate cash. It could become an all-digital property, but supporting a daily circulation of over 300,000 is too much of a burden. It could survive if its rival the St. Paul Pioneer Press folds. A grim race.

3. The Miami Herald, which has a daily circulation of about 220,000. It is owned by McClatchy, a publicly traded company which could be the next chain to go into Chapter 11. The Herald has been on the market since December, and but no serious bidders have emerged. Newspaper advertising has been especially hard hit in Florida because of the tremendous loss in real estate advertising. The online version of the paper is already well-read in the Miami area and Latin America and the Caribbean. The Herald has strong competition north of it in Fort Lauderdale. There is a very small chance it could merge with the Sun-Sentinel, but it is more likely that the Herald will go online-only with two editions, one for English-speaking readers and one for Spanish.

4. The Detroit News is one of two daily papers in the big American city badly hit by the economic downturn. It is unlikely that it can merge with the larger Detroit Free Press which is owned by Gannett. It is hard to see what would be in it for Gannett. With the fortunes of Detroit getting worse each day, cutting back the number of days that the paper is delivered will not save enough money to keep the paper open.

5. The Boston Globe is, based on several accounts, losing $1 million a week. One investment bank recently said that the paper is only worth $20 million. The paper is the flagship of what the Globe’s parent, The New York Times, calls the New England Media Group. NYT has substantial financial problems of its own. Last year, ad revenue for the New England properties was down 18%. That is likely to continue or get worse this year. Supporting larger losses at the Globe will become nearly impossible. Boston.com, the online site that includes the digital aspects of the Globe, will probably be all that will be left of the operation.

6. The San Francisco Chronicle. Parent company Hearst has already set a deadline for shutting the paper if it cannot make tremendous cost cuts. The Chronicle lost as much as $70 million last year. Even if the company could lower its costs, the northern California economy is in bad shape. The online version of the paper could be the only version by the middle of the 2009.

7. The Chicago Sun Times is the smaller of two newspapers in the city. Its parent company, Sun-Times Media Group trades for $.03 a share. Davidson Kempner, a large shareholder in the firm, has dumped the CEO and most of the board. The paper has no chance of competing with The Chicago Tribune.

8. NY Daily News is one of several large papers fighting for circulation and advertising in the New York City area. Unlike The New York Times, New York Post, Newsday, and Newark Star Ledger, the Daily News is not owned by a larger organization. Real estate billionaire Mort Zuckerman owns the paper. Based on figures from other big dailies it could easily lose $60 million or $70 million and has no chance of recovering from that level

9. The Fort Worth Star Telegram is another one of the big dailies that competes with a larger paper in a neighboring market – Dallas. The parent of The Dallas Morning News, Belo, is arguably a stronger company that the Star Telegram’s parent, McClatchy. The Morning News has a circulation of about 350,000 and the Star Telegram has just over 200,000. The Star Telegram will have to shut down or become an edition of its rival. Putting them together would save tens of millions of dollars a year.

10. The Cleveland Plain Dealer is in one of the economically weakest markets in the country. Its parent, Advance Publications, has already threatened to close its paper in Newark. Employees gave up enough in terms of concessions to keep the paper open. Advance, owned by the Newhouse family, is carrying the burden of its paper plus Conde Nast, its magazine group which is losing advertising revenue. The Plain Dealer will be shut or go digital by the end of next year.

This will be heresy to some, but I’m not particularly wedded to the idea of news-on-paper, so if any of these papers can deliver comparable news and become healthy, profitable concerns by eliminating paper, it’s not a big deal to me (although I hope said companies spin off their printing press into a separate enterprise that then flourishes on its own, once it can set whatever rates it needs to). I’m skeptical that many papers can make this transition in any sort of timely fashion, however.

Read Across America 2009, Part II

So it went better this morning at Hollyvale Elementary School, where I read to three classes. The sixth graders were again the least impressed — the school put out a selection of books that I think were just too young for them — but the two fourth grade classes I read to loved the two books I read, both by Robert Munsch, the Farrelly Brothers of children’s books: Pigs and Angela’s Airplane.

Pigs, which features on the loose pigs that, among other things, pee on both the title character’s father’s and principal’s feet, was the bigger hit, although there were girls in one classroom that really seemed to click with Angela’s Airplane.

Read Across America 2009

I like doing this every year — reading to elementary school kids — but don’t let the school staff fool you: sixth graders are significantly tougher than younger kids. Younger kids don’t sigh and dangle their arms as you read (just a few in a class of about 30, but enough), and act as though you’re literally boring them to death.

I’ll get another chance, though: In addition to reading at Topaz Elementary School today, I’ll be reading at Hollyvale Elementary School on Monday and then, Monday afternoon, will be talking about newspapers at an assembly at Mission Crest Elementary School. (They’re using Read Across America as a kick-off to a month of reading.) Yes, I’ll be that guy at the school assembly.

Liz Phair at Banana Republic

I suppose this is Banana Republic‘s attempt to woo me as a customer: Liz Phair is one of a set of adult contemporary artists (apparently, that’s my demographic now, ugh; Banana Republic is not impressed by me listening to the Blakes or Honeyhoney on my iPhone) doing a series of “City Stories” promotions for them this spring.

There’s a mini-site featuring Liz, and it actually has some new content, as opposed to her official page and her MySpace page.

In May, there will be a new free song available from Banana Republic, the first from the newly re-independent Liz (other than Exile in Guyville bonus tracks included on the reissue of that album; all of those were 15 years old).

If Banana Republic really wanted to get me, they’d bring back the funky Indiana Jones chic that they started off with; I loved the old Jeeps they had sitting in the middle of their Tysons Corner store. I guess there’s only so many khaki cargo shorts they can sell, though.

Nineteen months

James has started communicating more lately: In addition to “CAT!” and “ssssh” (fish), he’s begun signing “Daddy,” “cracker” (when he actually wants a cracker, instead of just imitating the kids on TV) and “more,” although he only does that when he wants a sip of soda from a straw, so he may not realize it’s used for more than that.

He will also tow an adult to whatever he wants and point at it, including getting a diaper when he wants to be changed. He’s even asked for a bath.